Friday, February 22, 2008

Financial contagion

Today, we live in a world so intertwined that a financial contagion has an astounding probability of making it to the farthest and most alienated places of Earth. Did anybody say financial inclusion? Well, for whatever, the recent subprime shake out has been a crisis of sorts; and how far have the Asian giants been exposed is a question worth pondering over, considering the increased role of Asia in the global financial system. Well, there’s no doubt that the aftershocks of US sub-prime have traversed far enough and hit the Asian shores, which is quite palpable from the widening bond spreads shown in the charts. But one has to consider the following. The external debt of Asian economies has reduced significantly – placing them strongly against hasty capital outflows and currency depreciation. External debt as a percentage of GDP for emerging East Asia and other Emerging Asia has fallen by almost 10% & 5% (approx), respectively. Again, if one takes into consideration the government balances, one would find that fiscal prudence has been noteworthy.

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