Friday, November 30, 2012

IRAQ: US IRAQ SECURITY AGREEMENT

To be able to maintain peace and security in Iraq, al-Maliki would need approval from the opposition

However, he can only bank on the endorsement of his own Dawa party and Kurdish bloc that have 27 and 58 seats respectively. Faction of rebellious Shia cleric, Muqtada al-Sadr, with 32 seats, resists the deal, whereas al-Maliki's Shia coalition partner, the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC), with 30 seats, is still sceptical of lending its support.

Talking to B&E on the withdrawal, noted Iraqi expert at Centre for American Progress, Sean E. Duggan said, “An indefinite US military presence will reverse the calculations of Iraqi opposition groups – most notably the Sunni Awakening forces and the Sadr movement – that have been critical in bringing about short-term security improvements. Therefore it is extremely important for al-Maliki to assure its approval.”

Muqtada al-Sadr also opposes any accord that would maintain US military in Iraq. And Shiite-dominated Iran, which exercises substantial sway among some Shiite parties, also opposes the accord. The support of other parties will also depend on Baghdad’s demand of getting authority to arrest and try Americans accused of crimes unrelated to official military operations. Looks like tough times ahead.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Livni affronts thorns

There are tremendous expectations from the new Kadima Chief; will she be a hawk or a dove?

In an election that may well decide what kind of news will we be reporting from west Asia in days to come, Tzipi Livni, Israel's outgoing Foreign Minister won the election for the head of Kadima Party and has started political manoeuvres to set pieces for the coalition government that she will lead as a Prime Minister. As final results were announced this weekend, Livni narrowly edged out her closest rival, Shaul Mofaz, the hawkish Transport Minister in Olmert’s government, by 431 votes. While Livni polled 43.1% of the popular vote, Mofaz had to contend with 42%. Nearly all the Exit Polls predicting a sweep for Livni proved wide of the mark.

A wafer thin margin is only first of several problems that Livni confronts. Her party, Kadima, has merely 29 seats in the 120-seat Knesset and in all probability, will need support from Labour Party that has 19 seats as well as other marginal parties, including the ultra-orthodox Shas, and the left-wing Meretz. Needless to say, even by the standards of the bedlam that Israel’s internal politics is, it will be a tough deal for Livni, whose own allegiance & ideology has changed several times during her brief career as a politician.

“It is a rather complex game for her,” says Reuven Pedhatzur, Political Analyst. “Each party will try to extract their pound of flesh for their support. It will particularly be interesting to see the role of Shas.” On the peace front, things will not be any easier for her. She shall have to deal with the thorny question of the status of East Jerusalem and a road map for the creation of a separate state for Palestinians – both anathema for Shas.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Tuesday, November 27, 2012

The dragon strikes gold again

China's oil deal with Iraq is opening doors for a future where it can sign deals on its own terms

While the outgoing government in US tries hard to make the world believe that it has done a world of wonders for Iraq and its people, China silently signed an oil deal with the Iraqi government, thus making new inroads to suffice its thirst for oil and providing doors for foreign investment in the region. The deal is an extension of the oil deal signed in 1997 during Saddam's rule and is the first international deal signed by the post-Saddam government. The $3 billion deal would provide China with oil for the next 22 years, who would then use it to generate electricity. The size of the deal can be estimated from the fact that it has been signed for the Adhab oil field in Wasit province and is expected to produce 90,000 barrels a day, renegotiated by the Chinese state-run oil company, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC).

The contract signed in 1997 was on a production-sharing basis but the present one is a service contract, under which China will not be a partner in profits and instead will be paid for its work. The revised deal seems to be on worse terms than the original one signed with Saddam but the CNPC is ready to take more risk than any other giant oil firm. This, says an energy security analyst, would be the ‘game changer’.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Monday, November 26, 2012

Screeeechhhh!!!

Interest rate hike and mounting inflation has put the brakes on the speeding auto financing industry in the country. Bad times be damned!

im O’Neill, Sandra Lawson and Roopa Purushothaman who had concluded (in their paper titled, ‘The BRICs and Global Markets: Car, Crude and Capital’) that India’s market growth will be rapid with the potential for a threefold increase in car ownership over the next 10 years, might once again have to redo their work and radically change their conclusion. Well, the reason for the reconsideration being the rising raw material cost, slowing credit & signs of economic slowdown. All of these have cast a dark spell on the sector which now seems to be bearing the brunt of the economic slowdown, as well as interest rates that are rising by the day.

Certainly, the last five months have been a bit wary for auto loan consumers. The interest rates on auto loans have been hiked four times in a row. This has forced the banks to cut down on their retail lending by about 15-20%. Further, given the tight monetary stance by the central bank and its advice to the banks not to overstretch themselves and keep lending in consonance with their sources of funds (limit credit growth up to 20%), the banks’ margins have squeezed. Hence to maintain their profitability, they are left with no option but to revise their lending rates. With inflation (currently pegged at 12.44%) continuing to surge, a cut in the interest rate is unlikely in the near term and volumes are likely to remain under pressure. So much so that the current interest rates on auto loans which hover around 15.5% have had a direct impact on the buying behaviour of consumers. Sadly, these high interest rates (on the part of the financers) and lower buying sentiments (on the part of the consumers) will continue to negatively impact the demand for vehicles.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Friday, November 23, 2012

EU PRESIDENCY: FRENCH CANDIDATURE

Sarkozy seems to be more of loose cannon than one bargained for

With such chaos, Sarkozy will have tough times ahead. Talking to B&E on the issue, Philip Whyte, an expert on EU politics at Centre for European Reform, said, “He continues with the French tradition of finding scapegoats. He has accused the ‘Polish plumber’, the Chinese currency, Anglo-Saxons – all external scapegoats – for the misery of EU. He is on the verge of being dismissed as a cynic by sensible European leaders.” Tough luck. It is in all probability expected that other EU governments will make sure that the ever more protectionist and populist propositions from Sarkozy are resisted.

An added French objective is to forbid coverlet protection for unlawful immigrants. Italy and Spain have legally recognised hundreds of thousands of black workforce in recent years, effectively changing the black economy into dynamic taxpayers. Even if France is triumphant in forbidding immunity, the migrants will keep pouring in – only they’ll stay put in the black economy, where they are more probably to be subjugated. Sarkozy had hoped that at least one day he could be in the news devoid of Bruni! Voila, his wish seems to have been granted!


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Thursday, November 22, 2012

Green to the gills?

Here’s B&E’s lowdown on how to walk the ‘green mile’ without losing your way!

Nothing in the last few years has gained so much prominence the world over as much as global warming and climate change have, so much so, that from the food we eat to the clothes we wear, and from the cars we drive to the houses we live in, everything has been re-engineered and redesigned to make it more environment friendly.

But all this noise has also led to confusion in the minds of many. Just the other day I caught up with a friend who is ever so determined to reduce her carbon footprint. She drives 20 kms to this shop that sells organic food when she could easily buy inorganic food from the neighbourhood store, or better still, order it over the telephone just so she could do her bit for the environment. Usually the one to have all the answers, she asked, “Should one buy organic vegetables produced in far away places or inorganic stuff grown nearby?” Now that’s probably getting too deep into the matter, I thought. But if you belong to the school of thought that thinks that the whole deal gets a little confusing at times, there are simple things that could make a difference. Information overdose has had the most conscious of people confused. That said, we do have a problem at hand and a little thought is all it’ll take for us to make a difference.

So, how much is enough and what should be an individual’s contribution to achieve a meaningful result? According to Greenpeace, Reduce: The next time you buy something ask yourself whether you actually need it. Reuse: Unfortunately, we’re all part of a consumerist society. We go for a new and improved version of a product even if the one we already have works just as fine.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Wednesday, November 21, 2012

BARACK OBAMA: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATURE WIN

Barack Obama has won the battle. Will he also be able to win the war?

The mad last-minute rush of Democratic super delegates and results from the final primaries in Montana and South Dakota, handed Obama the 2,118 delegates victory.

Son of a black Kenyan father and white Kansan mother, Obama has made history by breaching America''s mightiest barrier – that of race. And thus naturally, the word "respect", found deep resonance in almost all of his moving speeches – plus the fact that Americans weren''t nearly as dumb as the world believes them to be.

Most observers feel Obama will easily overcome the conservative challenge from McCain – the general perception being that the latter will simply carry on the policies of Bush. No matter how vigorously McCain attempts to trash this by distancing himself from Bush – and, yes, by emphasising his own breadth of experience and Obama''s lack of it – it is clear where the die is cast. Said McCain in one of his scores of vapid, colourless speeches, "The American people didn''t get to know me yesterday as they are just getting to know Senator Obama." But maybe the American people just didn''t want to ''get to know'' McCain; and as they were "getting to know Obama", they liked what they saw and heard: a sane voice after two seemingly interminable spells of self-destructive Republican paranoia under President Bush!


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Kemal’s secular fundamentalists

Turkey is increasingly being pushed towards a new kind of extremism

When Mustafa Kemal Ataturk established modern Turkey, he envisioned a nation free from all kinds of fundamentalism, including “Islamism” and “Turkishness”. Perhaps he never knew 90 years hence, some of his followers will push it towards a completely different kind of fundamentalism, best described as militant secularism. In what may seriously damage political stability in West Asia, secularists or Kemalists, as they are called, are in the advance stages of banning the ruling party!

The ruling party's decision to lift a ban on female students wearing the Muslim headscarf at universities was seen as a catalyst for the closure case, the indictment for which is packed with references to the headscarf. A couple of months ago, the Constitutional Court had accepted a case by the Court of Appeals’ Chief Prosecutor, who sought closure of the AK Party.Appeal’s chief prosecutor also wants as many as 71 members of the AK party banned–that includes President Abdullah Gül and Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan–over charges of “breaching Turkey's constitution by supporting Islamist activities.”


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Monday, November 19, 2012

DAIMLER & HERO GROUP: JOINT-VENTURE

Daimler is the fourth foreigner to set foot in Indian truck domain. Will it help break the low foreign sales jinx?

The duo are looking forward to mass manufacturing a new brand of LCVs, MCVs & HCVs; with close to 80% degree of localisation. Sounds encouraging till you hear this one – the Indian market has had a long lasting love-hate affair with Tata Motors. And this will prove a major hurdle for international players including Daimler. Heart-burning stats prove it all: Only 2.51% of total commercial vehicles sold in March 2008 bore a ‘foreign’ tag. Tata on the other hand had a handsome 61.67%; clearly not a level-playing field!

However the dark clouds would pass away for the foreign invaders with the usage of latest technology as a differentiating factor, thus overshadowing the old Indian workhorses, as an auto analyst asserts, “In the long term high-tech machines & investments will work for the foreigners. Even though new players may take time to compete effectively with existing players like Tata Motors, they will have an advantage when it comes to technical know-how and global experience.” Pricing and operating costs still remain the key differentiating factors in the Indian truck market though. And even though Daimler has the competence to deal with the cost differentials that handicapped many other international brands in the past, it still has a tough job ahead; for Indian manufacturers are growing & maturing fast too, just like the Indian economy.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Thursday, November 15, 2012

A pricey Russian wedding?

While PepsiCo sees greater inroads into Russia, all that experts can see is a marriage going bad

In love with a Russian... and married soon after – that’s the latest at PepsiCo. This $115.6 billion giant (nyse), which today commands an incredible global market share of 31.1% (as per Beverage digest) has fallen in love with a healthy, juice producing Russian company, christened ‘JSC Lebedyansky’ (world’s sixth-largest juice manufacturer). The marriage dowry however is ‘beyond’ fair at $1.4 billion for a 75.53% stake in Lebedyansky.

Justifying the takeover, Michael White, CEO and Vice-Chairman, PepsiCo International states, “This agreement provides us with a strong platform for continued expansion in one of the world’s fastest growing juice markets and advances the global transformation of PepsiCo’s product portfolio.” According to ubs ag, Russia’s juice market is currently valued at $2.5 billion and is expected to grow by 10% a year through 2010. Even Euromonitor International has stated that the fruit and vegetable juice sales volume in Russia has grown by 73% (in terms of volume) from 2002 to 2007. So does this prove that this bait is all fleshy?


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Saturday, November 10, 2012

CHINA: TROUBLE IN TIBET

The revolt by the discontented monks fatally imperils Tibetans under the Dragon’s watch

Writes a blogger from Lhasa: 'Police cars and fire engines were outside smashed and burned. A lot of Tibetans ran towards Dazhao (Jokhang) temple. ' The riots in the Tibetan capital were the fiercest in two decades and, as before, led by its doughty Buddhist monks. The timing was carefully chosen to coincide with Chinese preparations for the August Olympics; though it is generally agreed that this is one more lost cause, and gravely imperils the Tibetans and their culture in Chinese occupancy. Yes the wide sympathy for the free-Tibet campaign notwithstanding, its public expression on a scale big enough to make a dent in the Chinese stand has rarely been considered practicable. Yet unmindful of the Dalai Lama’s warning, the monks have refused to abandon their romantic, many say Utopian, quest.

This latest uprising thus serves merely to revive the ancient fear, that the monks' resistance – though doubtless awe inspiring in the face of the Chinese juggernaut – could also, easily, attract a mind-numbing counter response. For as well as being deferred to by all the major world powers for their military and economic might, the Chinese have never much worried about the noises made about its terrible human rights record. The fear, then, is that once China is done with hosting the Games, it might not think twice about finding another of those long-term typically Chinese solutions to end the trouble for all time.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Friday, November 09, 2012

India’s is the next growth story

For years, ever since the UPA came to power - and even before that when NDA ruled - PMs and FMs have espoused that India’s is the next growth story.

But first, a quick summary of the economic growth story. The February 2008 IMF India Assessment report mentioned that “over the past five years, average growth of 8¾% has made India one of the world’s fastest growing economies.” The report addsed that inflation has “remained contained,” current account deficits have been at a moderate level, factors which, as per IMF, “pay tribute to India’s sound macroeconomic policies and past structural reforms.” Although India’s growth rates have remained high, they have been relatively subdued – if we can call it that – in recent quarters. India’s GDP grew by a smashing 9.3% in Q1 2007-08 (but it was lower than 9.6% in Q1 2006-07). In Q2 2007-08, it was even lower at 8.9% (compared to 10.2% in Q2 2006-07). The IMF forecast for India’s GDP growth in this fiscal is 8.75%. Subir Gokarn, Chief Economist, Standard & Poor’s, Asia Pacific, told B&E, “India’s GDP growth is expected to be 8.6% during FY 2007-08.” Dharmakriti Joshi, Director and Principal Economist, Crisil, commented, “We expect the GDP growth to moderate further in 2008-09... to a little over 8%.” The cumulative GDP figure at current market prices at the end of Q2 2007-08 had reached $1.09 trillion. Interestingly, while India’s GDP – in PPP terms – in FY 2006-07 was $3.8 trillion, the World Bank downgraded it by 38% in January 2008 (quoting recalculation using a new methodology) to $2.34 trillion.

Comparatively, the manufacturing sector – as per RBI Q3 review – recorded “a lower growth of 9.8% during April-November 2007, as compared to 11.8% during April-November 2006.” Dr. Dalip Kumar, Consultant, NCAER, revealed, “Non-farm activities, manufacturing and services... are either slowing down or just maintaining their trajectory of growth.” RBI itself accepts that the slowdown is due to “decelerated/negative growth in 11 out of the 17 manufacturing industry groups”; the 11 sectors account for a whopping 49.3% weight in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP). Frankling Templeton, though, does mention in its January 2008 ‘Market Snapshot’ that “the composition of IIP hasn’t changed to reflect new economic drivers and sectors; and the government is expected to introduce a new index with... new weights and a wider basket of items.”


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Thursday, November 08, 2012

Understanding outsourcing biz

 Europe lags the United States in reaping from the booming outsourcing business

Outsourcing as a global phenomenon is not new; it has been going on for long. But it was not until 1990s when outsourcing has come more into limelight. Traditionally West had always been considered as developed and the largest outsourcing market. But the paradox is that even within developed world, surprisingly the wealthiest continent, Europe, has really not been successful in becoming a major outsourcing market the way the US has become and take full advantage of this booming industry. Europe remained more like a primitive market.

The US and its corporations have been successful in adopting the fast changing business trends and emergence of outsourcing, whereas European Union as a continent has still remained aloof from reaping off benefit of outsourcing inspite of having the pride and greatest tradition of innovation and excellence in business and commerce giving global competitive edge to companies in various industries like banking, insurance, telecoms, automobiles and many others.

The latest Quarterly Index from TPI, an international sourcing advisory firm, revealed that the EU represents 49%of the value of major outsourcing contracts awarded worldwide, whereas the United States is standing at 44%. But fact is major outsourcers in the EU remained confined within the continent for the same purpose rather than focusing cheaper destinations like India, China and thinking beyond the continent. For example, Western Europe is more dependent on East European countries like Czech Republic, Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Belarus & the Baltic. Well, though experts claim that political stability, government commitment to the industry, highly skilled labour force and minimal socio-cultural differences were main reasons for over-dependence on the eastern continent.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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IIPM : The B-School with a Human Face

Wednesday, November 07, 2012

PRESIDENTIAL RACE: USA

The Hillary-Obama contest is a fascinating show piece of American elections

“The Clinton-Obama contest is a fascinating showpiece of American political theatre. In addition to the male/female and black/white aspects, the personalities embody a contrast, few other countries embrace that of new v/s old & change v/s continuity. I cannot think of any country apart from the USA where political experience is an electoral liability. The two leading contenders for the democratic nomination, embody these observations, and Obama is praised for his strong commitment to “change” without defining what this means while Clinton emphasises her “experience” without convincingly demonstrating that she has any. It’s American, it’s “show business”, and it’s exciting, even if somewhat primitive,” Dr. Robert

McGeehan, an associate fellow at Chatham House, told B&E. The next Obama-Clinton fight will be on January 26 in South Carolina where the black community is crucial factor. Though the black voters were loyal to the Clintons since the first presidency of Bill, this time, according to the polls, Obama is more popular among them. A victory on Saturday is crucial for Obama to go to the Super Tuesday campaigns with confidence. Obama hasn’t so far played his racial cards vigorously, which many analysts say is a “strategic error.” Would he take them out in pretty American style? Well, let’s wait and see.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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IIPM : The B-School with a Human Face

Monday, November 05, 2012

‘Bloodbath’ for oil is worth

A century was not enough to finish oil-politics...

The world could have been in the light of darkness, without oil. The world’s development and contributions of ‘Black Diamond’ has been itself been a history over a century. The last century has witnessed a battle between the US (Texas Railroad Commission, TRC) and OPEC to control oil and its price while output by non-OPEC countries & weather, have bereft individual countries’ power over it. Though, Middle East remains its major exporter with 44.5% share of global export, the US is capable enough to disturb oil price owing to its extentive reserves. Oil-politics has brought about more complications than other geo-political issues. Until 1970, oil price was less fluctuative as TRC was the only player to control oil price and OPEC was unaware of the game. In March 1971, TRC’s proration of 100% production scope to the US producers taught OPEC the game. This ultimately led power shift from the US to OPEC over price. The game began. The game of fight and shift of power went through with Yom Kippur War between Israel v/s Syria, Egypt in 1973, Iranian revolution in 1979 with Saddam’s sudden invasion to Iran and the US’s policy of subsidising, which favoured domestic oil production.

The price kept on fluctuating with various global events but individual country’s ability to influence oil politics got reduced and power shifted from OPEC, the US to non-OPEC countries, with increase in output from Russia, Europe and Asia’s economic boom, increasing consumption. Though, the real concern remains: reducing oil reserves, with increasing consumption, is forcing countries to find more sources.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012. An Initiative of IIPMMalay Chaudhuri
and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles.
 
Zee Business Best B-School Survey 2012
Prof. Arindam Chaudhuri’s Session at IMA Indore
IIPM IN FINANCIAL TIMES, UK. FEATURE OF THE WEEK
IIPM strong hold on Placement : 10000 Students Placed in last 5 year
IIPM’s Management Consulting Arm-Planman Consulting
Professor Arindam Chaudhuri – A Man For The Society….

IIPM: Indian Institute of Planning and Management
IIPM makes business education truly global

Management Guru Arindam Chaudhuri
Rajita Chaudhuri-The New Age Woman
IIPM B-School Facebook Page
IIPM Global Exposure
IIPM Best B School India
IIPM B-School Detail

IIPM Links  
IIPM : The B-School with a Human Face

Friday, November 02, 2012

Electronic dance music festival

Asia’s biggest electronic dance music festival is here!
 

While one might imagine that The Sunburn Festival is here to become the East’s answer to Ibiza-like parties, the Festival is in fact interested in catering to families. “Our aim is to make Sunburn Festival the Glastonbury Festival of the East, with lots of different bands, different acts, different genres of music, with flea markets, with art and lifestyle areas, and we definitely want to introduce the concept of camping at a festival. But to do that, we’ve got to make sure that we’ve got the security apparatus in place. It’s not just that the people can get there, but be safe too. It will take some time to get to those levels, but we aim to get there eventually,” says Nikhil.

This annual three day festival is not just god-sent for all music-lovers, but for Indian musicians, and could potentially put India on the map as a dance festival destination. And while Goa so far has been our answer for the best parties in India, The Sunburn Festival also gives us desis hope of camping at our very own Glastonbury Festival, very soon...


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012. An Initiative of IIPMMalay Chaudhuri
and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles.
 
Zee Business Best B-School Survey 2012
Prof. Arindam Chaudhuri’s Session at IMA Indore
IIPM IN FINANCIAL TIMES, UK. FEATURE OF THE WEEK
IIPM strong hold on Placement : 10000 Students Placed in last 5 year
IIPM’s Management Consulting Arm-Planman Consulting
Professor Arindam Chaudhuri – A Man For The Society….

IIPM: Indian Institute of Planning and Management
IIPM makes business education truly global

Management Guru Arindam Chaudhuri
Rajita Chaudhuri-The New Age Woman
IIPM B-School Facebook Page
IIPM Global Exposure
IIPM Best B School India
IIPM B-School Detail

IIPM Links  
IIPM : The B-School with a Human Face