Heavy Inflows of FII Money, Falling Exports due to Rising Rupee, And Widening Current Account Deficit! India is now walking on the same lane that Once Brought in the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997.
In July 1997 the South East Asian stock markets, especially South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and Philippines, which till then were on rampage, not only came to a screeching halt, but also entered into a prolonged phase of nightmare – better known as the Asian financial crisis. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), which poured in a whopping $19.1 billion into the countries’ markets in 1996 and drove these markets to record highs, flew away overnight ruining the countries’ stock markets and economic stability. So much so that while the Thai stock market lost 75% of its value, the PSE Composite in Philippines fell by around 66%.
The scenario was more or less the same in January 2008, when the Indian benchmark index Sensex after scaling a historic high of 21,206 on January 10, dwindled down to 15,322 by January 22. This time the same FIIs, who from January 1 till January 16 had infused Rs.30.59 billion into the Indian stock markets, pulled out a nerve-wracking Rs.44.65 billion in just two days, January 17 and 18. And now, the Indian stock market has again become the purple cow for the FII group. As per the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), net investments made by FIIs in the country’s equity markets has already gone past a mind-boggling Rs.1 trillion ($22 billion), pushing the market to the 21,000 level. What is most noticeable here is the way the FIIs have got hold of the nerve of the Indian market since the beginning of September 2010. Since then, while they have infused $17.3 billion, the Sensex has soared 16.5%. While industry mouthpieces like C. B. Bhave, Chairman SEBI, might not be overly worried about the situation, what cannot be ignored is the fact that while in 1996-97, India was fairly insulated from the global economy and even FII hot money vagaries, the situation is quite different currently. While the reasons for the sudden fall in the stock markets might be quite clear to industry players, a majority of global investors would fail to undertake a deeper analysis and could arbitrarily decrease the sovereign ratings for the nation – resulting in much collateral damage, international loan interest rates inclusive.
In fact, due to the increasing inflow of external capital and surging demand for the rupee, value of the domestic currency has risen sharply in terms of real effective exchange rate hurting the country’s exports. As for records, the rupee, which was trading at 47.08 against the greenback on August 31, surged almost 6% to 44.26 (as on November 8) on the back of heavy buying by the FIIs. Moreover, the strengthening of the rupee has allowed imports to surge 35.7% y-o-y in the second quarter as against a 21.7% y-o-y decline last year, pushing India’s trade deficit to rise by 33.5% to $34.2 billion in Q2FY’10 from $25.6 billion in the same quarter last fiscal. Though the exporters are now lobbying with the central bank to put a check on the rate hikes to somehow protect their competitiveness (a drop in the interest rate can put a pause to the capital inflow by reducing the difference between the prevailing near zero interest rates of the developed countries and the high interest rate of India), the Reserve Bank itself is in a helpless situation in its fight against inflation.
The scenario was more or less the same in January 2008, when the Indian benchmark index Sensex after scaling a historic high of 21,206 on January 10, dwindled down to 15,322 by January 22. This time the same FIIs, who from January 1 till January 16 had infused Rs.30.59 billion into the Indian stock markets, pulled out a nerve-wracking Rs.44.65 billion in just two days, January 17 and 18. And now, the Indian stock market has again become the purple cow for the FII group. As per the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), net investments made by FIIs in the country’s equity markets has already gone past a mind-boggling Rs.1 trillion ($22 billion), pushing the market to the 21,000 level. What is most noticeable here is the way the FIIs have got hold of the nerve of the Indian market since the beginning of September 2010. Since then, while they have infused $17.3 billion, the Sensex has soared 16.5%. While industry mouthpieces like C. B. Bhave, Chairman SEBI, might not be overly worried about the situation, what cannot be ignored is the fact that while in 1996-97, India was fairly insulated from the global economy and even FII hot money vagaries, the situation is quite different currently. While the reasons for the sudden fall in the stock markets might be quite clear to industry players, a majority of global investors would fail to undertake a deeper analysis and could arbitrarily decrease the sovereign ratings for the nation – resulting in much collateral damage, international loan interest rates inclusive.
In fact, due to the increasing inflow of external capital and surging demand for the rupee, value of the domestic currency has risen sharply in terms of real effective exchange rate hurting the country’s exports. As for records, the rupee, which was trading at 47.08 against the greenback on August 31, surged almost 6% to 44.26 (as on November 8) on the back of heavy buying by the FIIs. Moreover, the strengthening of the rupee has allowed imports to surge 35.7% y-o-y in the second quarter as against a 21.7% y-o-y decline last year, pushing India’s trade deficit to rise by 33.5% to $34.2 billion in Q2FY’10 from $25.6 billion in the same quarter last fiscal. Though the exporters are now lobbying with the central bank to put a check on the rate hikes to somehow protect their competitiveness (a drop in the interest rate can put a pause to the capital inflow by reducing the difference between the prevailing near zero interest rates of the developed countries and the high interest rate of India), the Reserve Bank itself is in a helpless situation in its fight against inflation.
Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
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