Profits of the 2012 B&E US Power 100 brigade totalled 13.4% more than last year. If America Inc. doesn’t suffer a double-dip recessionary heartache anytime soon, next year, the profits could rise higher. The question is: where will the leaders of the pack appear next year?
Twelve months in the past, my forecasts for America Inc. would have found a different set of takers. By the time July 2011 drew to a close, America Inc.’s benchmark indices had conveniently started the journey downhill. The S&P 500 was at a 6 month low (at 1,292.28 points). And the NYSE Composite and NASDAQ Composite indices were breaking longer records (8-month lows at 7,528.39 and 2,756.38 points respectively). As for brains in the boardrooms, they were worried about their shareholders. The simmering discontent over returns from bourses around the world, troubles in Europe that were mounting every passing day, and the cloud of criticism that surrounded the painful inflammation called unemployment that had shown no signs of subsiding since playtime got over last, were all unromantic truths. Wall Street had become nervy. America’s big boys of business too had.
On-ground, the possibility of a double-dip recession had got investors into a binary mode of thinking as far as returns were concerned. Off it, polarisation in American politics – with the Democrats blaming private interests and ill-directed deregulation for leading the economy to the pit, and the Republicans finding faults in the half-measured pump-priming for the economy’s failure to climb out of it – had disturbed the balance between pragmatism and (party) principles. Then, America’s AAA credit rating was headed towards the red zone, and no single bloc – for abundance or lack of desire – had a hassle-free solution to lighten the economy’s budget woes. It wasn’t a situation that called for celebration. With American GDP growth expected to fall below the 2% mark in 2011 (after rising 0.9% and 1.3% in Q1 & Q2, 2011) and global economy forecasted to underperform the 2010 story (estimated to fall short of the 4.4% growth scripted in 2010), optimism was out of question. So was any hope of a double-digit growth in bottomlines of companies and returns for the investor clan.
I had predicted otherwise. I had not only predicted that American companies would deliver double-digit growth in profits (PAT of 2012 B&E US Power 100 companies grew 13.4% y-o-y), but also handpicked the ones who would lead the band of profit-makers.
Like I said before, twelve months in the past, my forecasts for America Inc. would have found a different set of takers. Of the 20 companies which I had forecasted would occupy the top 20 slots of America Inc.’s profit charts, 16 actually did. According to my estimates in B&E, Exxon was supposed to walk away with the crown in FY2011, followed by Chevron, Apple and Microsoft. It happened. In fact, if an investor were to bet on me and invest equal dollars on each of the aforementioned top four names that I’d claimed would emerge winners, his return in just 11 months (as on June 27, 2012) would have been 22%. [To give you an interesting example, in July 2011, when I had predicted Apple to rise to #3 amongst profit-makers in FY2011, its m-cap was $310.41 billion.
Twelve months in the past, my forecasts for America Inc. would have found a different set of takers. By the time July 2011 drew to a close, America Inc.’s benchmark indices had conveniently started the journey downhill. The S&P 500 was at a 6 month low (at 1,292.28 points). And the NYSE Composite and NASDAQ Composite indices were breaking longer records (8-month lows at 7,528.39 and 2,756.38 points respectively). As for brains in the boardrooms, they were worried about their shareholders. The simmering discontent over returns from bourses around the world, troubles in Europe that were mounting every passing day, and the cloud of criticism that surrounded the painful inflammation called unemployment that had shown no signs of subsiding since playtime got over last, were all unromantic truths. Wall Street had become nervy. America’s big boys of business too had.
On-ground, the possibility of a double-dip recession had got investors into a binary mode of thinking as far as returns were concerned. Off it, polarisation in American politics – with the Democrats blaming private interests and ill-directed deregulation for leading the economy to the pit, and the Republicans finding faults in the half-measured pump-priming for the economy’s failure to climb out of it – had disturbed the balance between pragmatism and (party) principles. Then, America’s AAA credit rating was headed towards the red zone, and no single bloc – for abundance or lack of desire – had a hassle-free solution to lighten the economy’s budget woes. It wasn’t a situation that called for celebration. With American GDP growth expected to fall below the 2% mark in 2011 (after rising 0.9% and 1.3% in Q1 & Q2, 2011) and global economy forecasted to underperform the 2010 story (estimated to fall short of the 4.4% growth scripted in 2010), optimism was out of question. So was any hope of a double-digit growth in bottomlines of companies and returns for the investor clan.
I had predicted otherwise. I had not only predicted that American companies would deliver double-digit growth in profits (PAT of 2012 B&E US Power 100 companies grew 13.4% y-o-y), but also handpicked the ones who would lead the band of profit-makers.
Like I said before, twelve months in the past, my forecasts for America Inc. would have found a different set of takers. Of the 20 companies which I had forecasted would occupy the top 20 slots of America Inc.’s profit charts, 16 actually did. According to my estimates in B&E, Exxon was supposed to walk away with the crown in FY2011, followed by Chevron, Apple and Microsoft. It happened. In fact, if an investor were to bet on me and invest equal dollars on each of the aforementioned top four names that I’d claimed would emerge winners, his return in just 11 months (as on June 27, 2012) would have been 22%. [To give you an interesting example, in July 2011, when I had predicted Apple to rise to #3 amongst profit-makers in FY2011, its m-cap was $310.41 billion.
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles
2012 : DNA National B-School Survey 2012
Ranked 1st in International Exposure (ahead of all the IIMs)
Ranked 6th Overall
Zee Business Best B-School Survey 2012
Prof. Arindam Chaudhuri’s Session at IMA Indore
IIPM IN FINANCIAL TIMES, UK. FEATURE OF THE WEEK
IIPM strong hold on Placement : 10000 Students Placed in last 5 year
IIPM’s Management Consulting Arm-Planman Consulting
Professor Arindam Chaudhuri – A Man For The Society….
IIPM: Indian Institute of Planning and Management
IIPM makes business education truly global
Management Guru Arindam Chaudhuri
Rajita Chaudhuri-The New Age Woman
IIPM B-School Facebook Page
IIPM Global Exposure
IIPM Best B School India
IIPM B-School Detail
IIPM Links
IIPM : The B-School with a Human Face
Ranked 1st in International Exposure (ahead of all the IIMs)
Ranked 6th Overall
Zee Business Best B-School Survey 2012
Prof. Arindam Chaudhuri’s Session at IMA Indore
IIPM IN FINANCIAL TIMES, UK. FEATURE OF THE WEEK
IIPM strong hold on Placement : 10000 Students Placed in last 5 year
IIPM’s Management Consulting Arm-Planman Consulting
Professor Arindam Chaudhuri – A Man For The Society….
IIPM: Indian Institute of Planning and Management
IIPM makes business education truly global
Management Guru Arindam Chaudhuri
Rajita Chaudhuri-The New Age Woman
IIPM B-School Facebook Page
IIPM Global Exposure
IIPM Best B School India
IIPM B-School Detail
IIPM Links
IIPM : The B-School with a Human Face
