Wednesday, August 08, 2012

His Asian conspiracy?

Obama’s mysterious Asian policies seem more conspiratorial than what meets the eye. Is his current silence an omen? Managing Editor Sutanu Guru investigates expected future US policies towards Asia in this issue of B&E

1853: It has been a few centuries since Asia has been on the decline, most of it colonised in one way or other by European nations. British engineers have constructed the first railway tracks in Bombay. But there is one Asian nation that has not been penetrated by any European power. That is the Land of the Rising Sun, Japan. Not for very long though. Commodore Mathew C. Perry of the United States Navy uses superior firepower to literally barge inside Japan. That year marks the beginning of engagement between America and Asia – a tale of hope, betrayal, destruction and renewal. One hundred and fifty one years after Perry’s ‘gunboat’ diplomacy, Barack Obama is poised to deliver hope and renewal instead of betrayal and destruction. His predecessor George Bush had brazenly followed gunboat diplomacy and wrecked American prestige & standing in Asia. But Obama has to realise that the Asia that Bush mishandled is not the Japan of 1853, Philippines of 1898, Japan of 1945, Vietnam of 1968, China of 1973 and Iran & Afghanistan of 1979. The Asian nations that the predecessors of Bush dealt with were colonies, supplicants, allies, stooges, puppets and pawns in the Great Game of Superpower rivalry.

Not any more. Sure, the Colossus still appears formidable. Sure, America has a military (open and discreet) presence in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea and Japan, to name just a few. Sure, financial convulsions in America are sending shock waves through the whole of Asia. Yet, Asia is now fundamentally different. For the next three decades or more, Obama will have to accept that Asia will clearly be the engine of economic growth of the entire world, the way Europe was in the 19th century and United States in the 20th century. Brow beating and bullying this Asia will simply not work. Preaching will not work. Double standards will definitely not work. What will work is the engagement and dialogue that Obama promises. But many former American presidents have promised a new relationship with Asia; almost none has delivered.

In recent times, John F. Kennedy promised a new era, but ended up delivering Vietnam and the post-Vietnam horrors in Cambodia where a mad man called Pol Pot butchered about one third of his countrymen. Jimmy Carter promised peace, but uncorked the genie of jihad in Afghanistan that eventually led to 9/11. Once upon a time, America was deeply popular in West Asia, particularly after it vehemently opposed the 1956 invasion of Egypt by Britain and France. Now it is so widely hated on the Arab street that it is difficult to imagine how Obama can recover lost ground. But the worst record of America has been in spreading genuine democracy. Perhaps the only successful example of the United States nurturing a democracy is in post Second World War Japan. Perhaps that’s why a majority of Japanese have a measure of goodwill for America despite the unspeakable horrors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In the rest of Asia, the US has repeatedly propped up dictatorships in the name of fighting Communism, as it has done in even Africa and Latin America. In Indonesia, it propped up the corrupt and brutal General Suharto. In Philippines, it propped up Ferdinand Marcos. In South Korea, it supported a series of dictators. In Pakistan, it forged a strategic alliance with the military that continues till date. In Iran, it supported and propped up the Shah of Iran till the Islamic Revolution of 1979.

All these policies have come back to haunt America... But Barack Obama could end up making a bigger mistake. The biggest geopolitical threat to both Asia and the US for the next two decades will be terror. And it is here that Obama can leave his imprint on history or remain mired in old strategies that have destroyed America’s credibility. The exhaustive arc from Egypt to Pakistan is simmering with both discontent because of stifled aspirations and a culture of jihad that attracts more and more ‘educated’ professionals. The reason: Pakistan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, UAE, Yemen and Egypt are all de facto dictatorships propped up by Uncle Sam. That is why the George Bush doctrine of spreading democracy by invading Iraq sounded so bizarre.


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